A decade following the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that divided the nation and triggered chaos, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two respected journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Intends to Stir Debate
The duo have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you land with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue that moment is imminent, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in academia but scarcely any elected officials or advocates are willing to participate even with the basics. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, no writer advocates unification or the status quo. Each writes two essays that aim for impartiality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling financial and social figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Debates range over identity markers, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and stimulate discussion.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the notion that there may exist good arguments on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they favour unity but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government should determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride considers a national vote in his era is likely and that it may take place suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, legitimate arguments, he said. "One side will prevail on this issue and the other side will in the end lose but all factions has possesses important lessons to gain from the other's positions."
Appeal for Wider Dialogue
Westminster needed to participate in the debate, stated the analyst. "This concerns your state. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."
